I am not a diaspora nor a dual passport holder though I spend half my time in Los Angeles and the other half in the North during the last four years and North and East during 1994 to 2007. I have met members and leaders of both major parties since 1994 till 2007. Having moved closely with many of the diaspora and the people in the North, I can assure you that the diaspora matters and the people in the North and East and most of the Tamils in other parts depend on the diaspora to help them articulate their aspirations and regain their rights. The Rajapaksa regime and the UNP and the supporters of both parties understand the dynamics.
No matter which of the 2 or 3 parties or who will lead their parties none of them can propose a political solution and run on that Mandate. It is a well known fact that whoever adopt a Federal set up like the USA, Canada, Belgium, Swiss or even 13A plus or minus will win the election.
None of the parties will give an assurance for a Federal solution in private in front of independent witnesses. They did not when the LTTE was at its peak. Both parties have in 2001 and 2005 (June 19, 2005) promised in through intermediaries a Federal solution when they come to power. The USA (March 21 2001) was OK for such a solution until the Oslo decisions not to invite LTTE for the Tokyo planning meeting in DC which was made without informing the LTTE at that meeting.. If any candidate who in in confidence (Under the Table) promise to Tamil voters, and wins and try to implement even 13A plus (Merger of N & E, Police and Land powers and financial independence) The Parliament will not pass it with even a majority though a 2/3 majority and a simple majority in a referendum is needed to amend the constitution.
Whoever is elected as President will go and implement what they can, if even that, without amending the constitution. Such a solution will never happen in the present situation. The NPC is handcuffed now from implementing any of the rights that 13A gives on paper. Because all decisions however small has to be approved by the Governor which in reality means Defence Secretary his brother Basil and the President officially. Secretaries of the four NPC Secretaries and the Chief Secretary report to the Governor every week to brief him and to take instruction. This is legal. Such is the working of the 13A.
If however BBS wins then the 13A will be deleted from the constitution with a 2/3 majority in parliament and a referendum. Will India intervene in such an outcome as the ACCORD will be broken? Will the IC intervene?
In finding and implementing a just solution the major problem is not the leaders. It is the majoritianism of the hard core of it is the Sinhala Buddhist voters.
Based on my direct experience in Sri Lanka over the years – I was at Galle Face in 1956 but did not go near the epicenter. I was in front of the Jaffna Kachcheri in April 1961 taking pictures – I have stated above the gist of the current political situation that is relevant to the Tamil voters and the Diaspora. It is important for Tamils to be united and agree on a political solution and put it to all of the Presidential Candidates and to the International Community. Publish it so that there can be debates among the Voters and candidates and the Diaspora.
It is my view that the Tamil Voters and a good number of the diaspora will accept a Federal constitution based on the Swiss model. Please see the link to it below.