What if MAHINDA Wins? – A scenario analysis

Sri Lanka is going in for a general election on the 17th of August, 2015 mainly to decide which group out of the two main stream parties, would govern the country for the next five years.

Although it’s a battle between the UNP lead front versus UPFA; it is a face to face battle between the countries most seasoned campaigners ;( RW) and (MR).

Both camps have fielded strong candidates resulting in a neck to neck competition. This article is on, what if MR wins thus covers mainly that aspect. Number wise if MR lead UPFA secures more heads; can he retain all of them in the medium term. Members getting elected from UPFA will be faced with a number of critical questions before they decide their future under MR.

1)Whether MR will have the full backing of the Executive President.

2)Whether they (New members) want to be puppet Ministers again with no powers to decide on their Ministerial activities starting from appointing officials to launching any programme to provide jobs to the people they represent etc.,

3)Whether all of them will get Cabinet Portfolios with the new restriction introduced by the 19th Amendment to the Constitution making the maximum number of such appointments to 30.

4)Whether MR lead government be able to sustain with all ongoing  investigations against a large number of Politicians alleged to have committed crimes and or corruption

5)Whether their Leader can survive international pressure for his unwarranted come back despite all charges against him.

MahindaToHitler_LnW9A predictable analogy of above factors by a newly elected member is certain to include following in the same order they are presented above.

(1). MR is unlikely to have the backing of  the Executive President thus making the government unstable at all times since the President also functions as the Head of the  Cabinet and the Minister of Defense by default.  

What if the President is going to appoint a Prime Minister of his choice and Ministers from his loyalists in the UPFA; with the concurrence of the UNP in order to strip MR off of any power? If this scenario happens UNP will wait patiently until MR loses support and MS gains the absolute control of UPFA along with CBK.

Then the formation of a National Government can take place where Ranil will make a comeback to the position of Prime Minister. This new National Government will have two thirds majority to amend the constitution paving the way for a Deputy Prime Minister position for a senior most leader of the current UPFA.

Under any of the above scenarios MR Camp will not have numbers to come up with a no confidence motion against any Prime Minister thus will become only ordinary alternative action group but not even the opposition as the main opposition is already in a National government.
Who wants to be a part of this segment is a question of sanity and acceptability to MS and RW.

 (2). If they support MR they will become only name sake Cabinet Ministers having less authority than the Personal Assistants to Prime Ministers staff. No budgetary allocations enough to make any impact. No voice, only noise that too by the big office.

No official in the State Sector including their own Secretaries, Chairmen, Directors and the OIC of the area will take any notice of the so called Cabinet Minister.

No Cabinet paper will go through other than what the former kitchen Cabinet approves that too with huge step mother treatment after having to lobby with one of the all-powerful few.
A high handed and high headed Secretary to the Finance will not even come to  the phone even after leaving a good dozen of messages repeatedly reminding Ministers of how useless and powerless they are.

No School Principal will even admit a single student of their choice other than through the power bases in the big office.

No diplomat will ever pay respect or extend protocol during foreign travel, neither will they channel any aid or cooperation to all corners of the country but the deep South.
The choice will be against the authority, dignity and true glamour they can enjoy under an alternative Prime Minister or for that matter RW, which was evident under all UNP regimes including that of the current.

Once again only an unacceptable, rejected, dejected and or mentally retarded will choose the path of MR lead government.

(3). Branded loyalist of MS and CBK will not get Cabinet portfolios; will they not want to help RW instead to qualify for a portfolio. In any case MR will not be able to exceed 30 resulting in a large drop out who held portfolios previously.

This group can only be accommodated by RW with the exemption available towards unrestricted number of Ministers only in a National government.
Will not all intelligent and eligible new Members want to avail the first mover advantage with MS and RW.

(4). Corruption and criminal cases will get probed at a rapid pace even under a MR led Government since the Executive President has already taken all investigations under his purview also.

All clean politicians will not want to face huge embarrassment by getting branded alike. Only option available for them is to strengthen good governance which is the phenomenon the contemporary civil society cry out loud for and craving.

(5). This point is debatable enough; yet is pretty much valid. Is our leader vulnerable   to an International probe no matter how acceptable it is to the majority of the population.

Did Cuba and Iran finally give in to US pressure or not irrespective of how much reasonable the basis is.
Politicians in an island nation depending  heavily on exports going to  the West and  cannot afford to face embargos and sanctions surely will not want to sail on board a ship that is  set to sink half way.

This article is not on how the emotional voter will behave irrationally and on pure impulse. It is on how the Members will behave after the polls.
It is up to the learned reader to decide if he is going to cast his valuable vote IN VAIN, making an unstable country or to vote with a cause towards a brand new experience of a National Government with no confrontations for the sake of opposing.

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