2019 Presidential Election Outcome: Different Scenarios & Possibilities

By Siri Gamage –

Dr. Siri Gamage

There are various opinion pieces in the media about the possible outcome of forthcoming Presidential election in Sri Lanka. Some utilise results from the previous Local Government elections held a few years back; Others analyse campaign strategies, timing etc. of the two main candidates. Some recognise the impact of other candidates such as Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Mahesh Senanayake. The potential effect of numerically minority votes in the Northern and Eastern provinces are also mentioned. However, in a country where there are no systematically conducted opinion surveys by independent polling agencies, analysis of anecdotal factors cannot be avoided. In this context, there are several key factors that need to be elaborated to help in our thinking on this subject so close to the election day- in particular the voter behaviour.

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