The Rajapaksa support base has not grown between the presidential election of 2019 and the parliamentary election of 2020. In fact it has decreased by more than 70,500 votes.
Given the massive losses suffered by the opposition, this would seem insignificant, numerically and politically. But the trend does matter – Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s seven month rule has not succeeded in expanding the Rajapaksa support base.
A district-level breakdown provides a clearer picture. The SLPP’s vote count declined between 2019 and 2020 in 11 districts – Colombo (53,110), Gampaha (47,974), Galle (35,709), Kalutara (34.221), Matara (22.264), Puttalam (10,194), Ampara (9,046), Batticaloa (5,044), Kurunegala (2313), Ratnapura (1,376), and Moneragala (629).
Of the 11 districts where the SLPP vote count increased, the three biggest boosters were Nuwara Eliya (55,261), Pollonnaruwa (33,507), and Badulla (33,327).