Our tipster Jones Knows has a 18/1 treble to attack across Saturday’s fixtures – can he find you a winner?
How did we do last weekend?
The betting gods do like to test me with their wicked, wicked ways.
We backed a 7/2 loser in the shape of a Ruben Dias and Eric Dier to have a shot each. But that’s only half the story.
Regular readers will know of my early season passion regarding Manchester City’s centre-backs becoming a greater threat in the opposition box. Regular readers will also know about my ability to back the wrong centre-back in such situations.
Well, guys. It happened again.
Aymeric Laporte was the man in question to fire a shot away and indeed score vs Norwich – a nice 10/1 anytime shot if you got it. Dias actually challenged for the original ball into the box and was inches away from getting a touch to send it towards goal. He makes contact there and we are celebrating a 7/2 winner as Dier went onto register an effort at goal for Tottenham vs Wolves.
After Dias falling at the final hurdle in the PFA Player of the Year race when we were on at 12/1, the City defensive rock is fast becoming my punting nemesis.
I like to provide balance through this column, so there was in fact plenty to cheer across the betting angles put up in my Premier League prediction article. Five winners from 10 selections, which would have yielded a healthy +10 points of profit to level stakes if you followed – you can read this week’s ramblings here.
But no one likes an after-timer. Let’s move on to finding the gold this weekend. I have combined three of my strongest individual fancies into a 18/1 treble that has the ability to make me a legend if it lands. Read on…
P+L = -2
1pt on Manchester City to have more bookings points than Arsenal, Newcastle to beat Southampton and under 30 booking points in Liverpool vs Chelsea (18/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
I really rate the chances of Man City being shown more cards than Arsenal in the early kick-off.
The match scenario and pattern is an obvious one to work out. Arsenal will try to soak up pressure by defending deep and springing through quick transitions – in a similar vein to what Tottenham did on the opening weekend vs City. Emile Smith Rowe, Bukayo Saka, Nicolas Pepe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are all speedy customers to deal with on the break and City are well-versed and seemingly encouraged to break up those attacks with cynical challenges.
Despite their poor red card record, Arsenal are relatively well behaved, ranking 17th for total bookings last season and teams that defend deep rarely commit yellow-card-worthy fouls.
This is a bet that would have won in four of the last five City home games and would have romped home during this fixture last season where City racked up four cards to Arsenal’s one.
Meanwhile, I am all over Newcastle here at the prices on offer.
To my eye and when assessing all the key performance data metrics, they are simply a better team than Southampton and carry much more of an attacking threat in the final third. When you also factor in home advantage and the way Saints defended set-plays last weekend in the draw with Manchester United, the 6/4 with Sky Bet has got my name all over it.
Liverpool vs Chelsea is a fascinating betting heat. My eyes are on the cards.
The fact this is an early-season clash between two title rivals does open the possibility of a somewhat cagey encounter if the scores are level at 60 minutes. A point is a perfectly acceptable result for both. That could lead to a low foul count involving two teams that rank low for yellow cards anyway. In the period since Thomas Tuchel took charge, Chelsea rank 16th for yellow cards and Liverpool 18th. Also, this fixture produced zero cards last season. With referees seemingly happy to let the game flow more this campaign, Anthony Taylor may want to reinforce that point in what is the highest-profile Premier League game so far. I like the look of the game to produce less than 30 bookings points.
For those not familiar with booking points: Sky Bet’s way of calculating is to award 10 points for a yellow card and 25 for a red. If a player receives two yellow cards and is consequently shown a red card, they receive a total of 35 booking points. So, in the Liverpool game, we are banking on the referee showing two yellow cards or less and no red cards.